Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf9b5…ed94 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$57
sports 17% +$88
crypto 2% −$6
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +6.5% -3.7% 25% 25% -3.9%
≤30d 44 +6.5% -3.7% 25% 25% -3.9%
≤90d 44 +6.5% -3.7% 25% 25% -3.9%
all 44 +6.5% -3.7% 25% 25% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 25% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 18% -13.1%
15% -21.3% 18% -21.5%
20% -29.0% 14% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-11%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 +$11 +219%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$42 +407%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$3 -24%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$2 +15%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $18 −$10 -55%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $57 −$37 -65%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$13 +22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -54%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 $0 -12%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $6 +$9 +144%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $23 +$9 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 +$10 +975%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 +$33 +590%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$4 -22%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 +$13 +316%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 69¢ $16 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $6 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 7h
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 2¢ $5 22h
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots BUY No 1¢ $2 22h
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 5¢ $2 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 22h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $16 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $44 22h
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots BUY No 45¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.36 · official $50.88 (match) · 128 history records