Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9b5…1212 sports 614 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (171 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$873 (-4%) realized −$885 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%244W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day170.5pace
Fees−$390est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,106
7 days+$927
14 days+$392
30 days+$891
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$67
world 10% +$194
other 7% +$233
politics 5% −$51
weather 4% +$303
crypto 2% +$163
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (171 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 +19.3% +7.9% 44% 39% +5.1%
≤30d 576 +8.1% -2.2% 42% 39% -5.5%
≤90d 576 +8.1% -2.2% 42% 39% -5.5%
all 576 +8.1% -2.2% 42% 39% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover170.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 39% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 35% -14.5%
15% -20.1% 32% -22.8%
20% -27.9% 29% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$25 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$531
Realized−$885
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses244 / 332
Est. fees paid−$390
Open positions38
Markets (closed)576 / 614
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day170.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 24¢ 50¢ $38 $79 +$41 (+108%)
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Oriol Roca Batalla 23¢ 24¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 35¢ 44¢ $33 $41 +$8 (+25%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? No 70¢ 74¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 63¢ 66¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+5%)
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? No 78¢ 100¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $23 $19 −$5 (-20%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? No 87¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? No 14¢ 16¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+11%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 74¢ 60¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 51¢ 52¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 51¢ 61¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 81¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+70%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 29¢ 32¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-26%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $9 −$4 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$65 +724%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $24 −$18 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $30 −$8 -26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 +$30 +78%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $19 +$24 +124%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $89 +$262 +294%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $49 +$85 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$14 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +11%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $50 +$11 +21%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $60 +$55 +93%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $130 +$145 +112%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $34 +$77 +229%
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Fucsovics Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $149 +$69 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$250 +762%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $59 +$15 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$5 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$6 +79%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $30 −$4 -15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $22 −$7 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$6 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $34 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $77 +$84 +109%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $55 −$26 -48%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $65 −$53 -82%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $110 +$130 +118%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $32 +$23 +70%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $139 −$41 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia SELL Stefano Travaglia 50¢ $103 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29m
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 29¢ $9 29m
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 69¢ $2 34m
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 69¢ $18 35m
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $10 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $6 38m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $9 38m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 27¢ $34 38m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 43m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 47m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 23¢ $57 1h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 23¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 28¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 72¢ $9 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 2h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $74 3h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 68¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.11 · official $531.18 (match) · 3500 history records