Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf9b6…e49b politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$22
politics 37% −$20
sports 6% +$22
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 122 -0.0% -9.5% 4% 2% -9.7%
all 131 +2.6% -7.2% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -16.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×9.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage114d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $235 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $257 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $318 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $294 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $285 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $308 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $309 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $279 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $325 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $290 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $239 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $318 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $299 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $246 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $315 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $251 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 01 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $713 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 13h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 7d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 9d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 10d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $44 13d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $44 13d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 14d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $50 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $50 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 22d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 22d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 22d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 27d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 29d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $298 29d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $298 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $257 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $257 30d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $318 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.99 · official $37.99 (match) · 400 history records