Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9b7…60a4 world 265 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$89,846 (+22%) realized +$97,565 · open −$7,719
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%96W / 286L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,553per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$1,391est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$79,958now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$15,480
sports 18% +$4,854
other 16% +$12,253
finance 10% −$15,243
politics 8% +$3,281
crypto 2% −$2,840
tech 0% +$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -75.8% -78.1% 8% 7% -32.2%
≤30d 311 -44.6% -49.8% 22% 19% -16.2%
≤90d 382 -37.0% -43.0% 25% 22% -12.2%
all 382 -37.0% -43.0% 25% 22% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.0% 22% -12.2%
10% -48.4% 19% -20.6%
15% ← realistic here -53.4% 17% -28.3%
20% -58.0% 15% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$581) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -82% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$962 vs −$373 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$79,958
Realized+$97,565
Unrealized−$7,719
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses96 / 286
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,391
Open positions96
Markets (closed)382 / 265
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$1,553
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 96 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 85¢ $12,038 $13,180 +$1,142 (+9%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 78¢ $5,763 $6,526 +$763 (+13%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 73¢ $4,976 $5,438 +$462 (+9%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $4,863 $5,319 +$456 (+9%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $4,109 $3,897 −$212 (-5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $3,480 $3,660 +$180 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $3,407 $3,437 +$30 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $2,849 $3,184 +$335 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 35¢ 83¢ $1,187 $2,790 +$1,603 (+135%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 7¢ $5,577 $2,685 −$2,892 (-52%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,275 $2,288 +$12 (+1%)
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $1,774 $1,891 +$117 (+7%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $1,856 $1,867 +$11 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $2,040 $1,860 −$180 (-9%)
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $1,800 $1,830 +$30 (+2%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $1,016 $1,719 +$703 (+69%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 38¢ $821 $1,160 +$339 (+41%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 51¢ 92¢ $517 $941 +$424 (+82%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 24¢ $1,038 $881 −$156 (-15%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $735 $876 +$140 (+19%)
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? No 79¢ 94¢ $720 $858 +$137 (+19%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $681 $835 +$155 (+23%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 89¢ $392 $755 +$363 (+93%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $627 $696 +$69 (+11%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes 13¢ 30¢ $287 $690 +$403 (+140%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 277 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 15 $1,505 −$2,486 -165%
Ducks vs. Canucks Jun 15 $865 −$865 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Jun 15 $121 −$121 -100%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $973 −$1,205 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will there be five or six announced new U.S. armed forces strikes agai Jun 15 $53 −$37 -71%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $128 −$128 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Jun 15 $389 −$491 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026? Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $183 −$183 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Alexia Thainara (Women's Strawweight Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Magic vs. Spurs Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $234 −$234 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jun 15 $268 −$268 -100%
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the US strike Nigeria next? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Jun 15 $141 +$518 +368%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2,145 −$2,145 -100%
Will Rhamondre Stevenson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $290 −$290 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $350 −$345 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $288 −$288 -100%
Capitals vs. Kraken Jun 15 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Santiago Luna win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $192 −$192 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $117 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 15¢ $18 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 15¢ $18 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 15¢ $10 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 15¢ $3 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 15¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 15¢ $3 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 15¢ $396 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 73¢ $365 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 74¢ $1,116 2h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 29¢ $72 2h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 29¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79,957.67 · official $79,957.91 (match) · 3500 history records