Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9b7…c1ed sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate80%44W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$10
world 26% −$6
other 16% −$13
weather 8% −$2
politics 5% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.9% -11.2% 75% 50% -11.0%
≤30d 55 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 36% -11.1%
≤90d 55 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 36% -11.1%
all 55 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 36% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 36% -11.1%
10% -21.1% 22% -19.6%
15% -28.7% 15% -27.4%
20% -35.7% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses44 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage24d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? No 98¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$4 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 $0 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $5 +$1 +11%
ITF Ljubljana: Jan Kupcic vs Alexander Weis Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $5 +$2 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $24 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 25? May 25 $5 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 90¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 90¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 90¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 90¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 87¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 96¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 90¢ $5 5d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J BUY No 90¢ $5 7d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 55¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.43 · official $27.43 (match) · 119 history records