Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf9b8…0590 other 45 markets active 1d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+7%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$53
sports 39% −$21
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.2% +2.5% 69% 69% +9.7%
≤30d 17 +5.5% -4.5% 65% 65% +7.4%
≤90d 32 -8.6% -17.3% 53% 53% +1.5%
all 45 -25.3% -32.4% 40% 40% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 40% -3.6%
10% -38.9% 40% -12.8%
15% -44.8% 33% -21.2%
20% -50.2% 24% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage108d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$23 +57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$9 +31%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$5 +41%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners May 30 $20 +$7 +32%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $15 +$14 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $25 +$16 +64%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? May 10 $15 +$16 +105%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 07 $5 +$4 +73%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners May 07 $25 +$9 +36%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Draw at halftime? May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime? May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 14 $10 +$12 +118%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? Apr 14 $30 +$40 +134%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Apr 14 $10 −$8 -79%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 08 $30 −$30 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 08 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 12 $1 +$3 +337%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 10 $1 $0 -36%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 78¢ $64 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $13 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $10 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 6d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 6d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $20 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records