Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

F9 0xf9c2…9389 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$556 (+47%) realized +$629 · open −$73

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +97% what you keep after slip

Net edge+97%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%4W / 7L

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$99per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$135

7 days−$538

14 days+$536

30 days+$536

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+97.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-95.7%	-96.1%	0%	0%	-96.2%
≤30d	11	+118.0%	+97.2%	36%	36%	+35.1%
≤90d	11	+118.0%	+97.2%	36%	36%	+35.1%
all	11	+118.0%	+97.2%	36%	36%	+35.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+97.2%	36%	+35.1%
10%	+78.4%	36%	+22.2%
15%	+61.1%	36%	+10.4%
20%	+45.3%	36%	-0.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +118% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$269 vs −$77 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized+$629

Unrealized−$73

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses4 / 7

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage9d

Avg bet$99

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-4.5)	France	22¢	6¢	$100	$27	−$73 (-73%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$87	−$85	-97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$182	−$182	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 17	$56	−$56	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 17	$77	−$53	-70%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	Jun 17	$67	−$67	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 17	$46	−$46	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$178	+$161	+91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$152	+$142	+93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$174	+$459	+264%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$21	+$312	+1519%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: France (-4.5)	BUY France	22¢	$102	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	13¢	$41	5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$82	25h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	99¢	$143	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	69¢	$101	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	69¢	$195	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	30¢	$51	7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$294	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	23¢	$51	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	1¢	$5	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	35¢	$41	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	SELL Aiemann Zahabi	22¢	$23	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$26	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	53¢	$56	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	23¢	$26	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	BUY Michael Chandler	23¢	$67	7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$152	7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	93¢	$633	7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$153	7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$182	8d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$333	9d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.00 · official $27.00 (match) · 33 history records