Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F9 0xf9c3…4d7f crypto 9 markets active 14h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,981per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
other 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 100% +6.4%
≤30d 1 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 100% +6.4%
≤90d 3 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 33% -5.3%
all 8 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 12% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -24.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -31.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage223d
Avg bet$1,981
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jun 22 $19 +$3 +18%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Feb 24 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 27 $17,538 −$18 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Jan 19 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 13h
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $19 99d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 99¢ $20 103d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 105d
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 117d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? SELL No 100¢ $77 118d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $77 128d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $17,521 146d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17,538 146d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 97¢ $9 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.24 · official $43.24 (match) · 17 history records