Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9c3…f686 politics 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 661d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$21
economics 21% −$4
other 12% −$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 97 -10.4% -19.0% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -26.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -40.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

661d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage661d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $50 $0 -1%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $102 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $52 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Mar 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in January 2026? Feb 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the Serie A? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest be relegated? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fiorentina win the Serie A? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the Bundesliga? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mike Rogers be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Hurts be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will another team win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Mark Zuckerberg out as Facebook CEO in 2024? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars finish with the worst record in the NFL? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Phil Murphy be the next DNC chair? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Robert Giuffra be Trump's Attorney General? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Nico Collins be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Rachel Lord announced as next BlackRock CEO? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atlanta United win the 2024 MLS Cup? Nov 18 $0 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $50 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 12h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 24d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 25d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 37d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 38d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $51 42d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $51 42d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 67d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 67d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 74d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 74d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 85d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 85d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 93d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 93d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $52 95d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $52 95d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? SELL No 100¢ $52 98d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? SELL No 100¢ $52 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $52 103d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 103d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 104d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $52 105d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $52 106d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 108d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records