Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf9c5…910a other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-9%) realized −$14 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$139
other 43% +$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +79.7% +62.6% 43% 43% +5.8%
≤30d 7 +79.7% +62.6% 43% 43% +5.8%
≤90d 7 +79.7% +62.6% 43% 43% +5.8%
all 7 +79.7% +62.6% 43% 43% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.6% 43% +5.8%
10% +47.0% 43% -4.3%
15% +32.8% 43% -13.6%
20% +19.8% 43% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$50 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $158 $113 −$45 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$96 +234%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 +$52 +388%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 −$23 -80%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $185 −$146 -79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $67 +$132 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $137 1m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 35¢ $137 2m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 0¢ $31 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 6h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $39 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 40h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $82 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $99 40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 41h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 33¢ $67 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.34 · official $113.34 (match) · 17 history records