Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F9 0xf9c8…5379 sports 95 markets active 1d ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$23 (+12%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%58W / 37L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$18
other 3% +$3
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -49.6% -54.4% 33% 33% -31.6%
≤30d 60 +7.6% -2.7% 60% 58% -3.0%
≤90d 95 +11.4% +0.8% 61% 57% +0.6%
all 95 +11.4% +0.8% 61% 57% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 57% +0.6%
10% -8.9% 57% -9.0%
15% -17.7% 52% -17.8%
20% -25.8% 38% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses58 / 37
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $4 −$3 -72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1 +$1 +57%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $6 +$3 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $2 $0 -19%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1 +$2 +148%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$1 -44%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $1 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $2 $0 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $1 +$1 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 26 $1 $0 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $1 +$1 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $8 +$3 +46%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 25 $4 −$3 -85%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $1 +$1 +73%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $1 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $2 $0 +29%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $2 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $2 −$2 -75%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $2 +$1 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $3 −$2 -75%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $3 +$2 +88%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 24 $2 +$2 +63%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $3 +$1 +59%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$2 +60%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 23 $2 +$1 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $1 +$1 +48%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $1 +$2 +134%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 23 $1 +$2 +114%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $3 +$2 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 20¢ $1 26h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 44¢ $2 27h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 31¢ $2 27h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Seattle Orcas 23¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $1 39h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 50¢ $1 41h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 88¢ $5 43h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 57¢ $1 43h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 29¢ $1 44h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 72¢ $1 44h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 78¢ $2 45h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 22¢ $1 45h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 38¢ $2 46h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 22¢ $2 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 96¢ $2 7d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 64¢ $1 7d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 49¢ $2 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $0 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $1 7d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 35¢ $1 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL South Africa 20¢ $1 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL South Africa 20¢ $1 7d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 26¢ $3 7d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 10¢ $1 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 24¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 31¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 51¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 72¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records