Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9c8…1e91 crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$146 (-5%) realized −$35 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days−$386
14 days−$208
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$564
crypto 19% +$151
sports 14% +$100
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -17.6% -25.5% 40% 33% -25.3%
≤30d 63 -8.5% -17.2% 41% 33% -16.3%
≤90d 63 -8.5% -17.2% 41% 33% -16.3%
all 63 -8.5% -17.2% 41% 33% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 33% -16.3%
10% -25.1% 24% -24.3%
15% -32.4% 21% -31.6%
20% -39.0% 16% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$24 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 72
History coverage21d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $97 $76 −$21 (-22%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $48 $12 −$36 (-75%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Yes 34¢ 1¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $2 +$3 +137%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $205 +$19 +9%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $164 −$53 -32%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 +$13 +13%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -57%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 -5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $137 +$156 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $97 −$36 -37%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $69 −$25 -36%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $200 −$78 -39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 −$13 -40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$47 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $345 −$323 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$6 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$12 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $335 +$51 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$12 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$6 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$3 -10%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $51 35m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $6 48m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $2 51m
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Panama v BUY 3¢ $31 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $111 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals SELL Yes 32¢ $224 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $164 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Cr BUY 23¢ $51 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $103 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $116 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $10 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $18 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $20 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs BUY 2¢ $41 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $61 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $137 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 2d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $122 2d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $200 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.87 · official $174.87 · 194 history records