Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf9ca…198b sports 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 410d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14,499 (+14%) realized +$14,428 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate69%180W / 81L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$3,130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$652
14 days+$652
30 days+$652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$9,966
other 24% +$4,729
sports 14% +$478
tech 11% +$1,148
crypto 7% −$1,151
world 1% −$328
culture 0% −$324
economics 0% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +20.1% +8.6% 100% 50% +3.7%
≤30d 10 +20.1% +8.6% 100% 50% +3.7%
≤90d 12 +21.2% +9.7% 100% 58% +5.9%
all 261 +3.7% -6.2% 69% 53% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 53% +3.9%
10% -15.2% 39% -6.1%
15% -23.4% 27% -15.1%
20% -30.9% 15% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$162 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$3,130
Realized+$14,428
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses180 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)261 / 263
History coverage410d
Avg bet$389
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $2,359 $2,435 +$76 (+3%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 95¢ $700 $695 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $654 +$51 +8%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $323 +$10 +3%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $619 +$26 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $198 +$23 +12%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $347 +$51 +15%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $163 +$35 +21%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $155 +$8 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $18 +$2 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $66 +$69 +105%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $1,936 +$378 +20%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $721 +$279 +39%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $2,233 +$337 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 11 $1,576 +$465 +30%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Sep 26 $156 +$11 +7%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 23 $137 −$137 -100%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? Sep 23 $200 −$31 -16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Sep 03 $350 −$213 -61%
OpenAI browser by August 31? Sep 01 $22 +$8 +35%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31? Sep 01 $220 +$80 +36%
Fever vs Sun Aug 22 $467 −$467 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 21 $100 +$40 +41%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Aug 21 $211 +$74 +35%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Aug 17 $53 −$3 -6%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 17 $139 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down on August 17? Aug 17 $396 +$104 +26%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati? Aug 16 $111 −$57 -51%
ATP Cincinnati - Sinner vs. Atmane Aug 16 $290 +$25 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 16? Aug 16 $93 +$7 +7%
XRP Up or Down on August 15? Aug 15 $200 +$16 +8%
ATP Cincinnati - Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime Aug 15 $289 +$14 +5%
Solana Up or Down on August 14? Aug 14 $136 +$22 +16%
ATP Cincinnati - Sinner vs. Mannarino Aug 14 $103 +$5 +4%
XRP Up or Down on August 13? Aug 13 $106 +$4 +4%
ATP Cincinnati - Mensik vs. Nardi Aug 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Rockies vs. Cardinals Aug 13 $32 −$32 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Fonseca vs. Atmane Aug 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Dodgers vs. Angels Aug 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Phillies vs. Reds Aug 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Red Sox vs. Astros Aug 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Red Sox vs. Astros Aug 13 $26 −$26 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Opelka vs. Comesana Aug 13 $33 −$33 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Tsitsipas vs. Bonzi Aug 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down on August 12? Aug 13 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down on August 12? Aug 13 $1,698 −$1,118 -66%
ATP Cincinnati - Khachanov vs. Brooksby Aug 13 $33 +$17 +52%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 13 $26 +$24 +96%
Mariners vs. Orioles Aug 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Twins vs. Yankees Aug 13 $32 +$18 +56%
ATP Cincinnati - Medjedovic vs. Alcaraz Aug 13 $50 +$8 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $701 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $706 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $334 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $333 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $323 16h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $321 16h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $619 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $0 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $398 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $221 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 87¢ $347 29h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 70¢ $347 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $198 36h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $163 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $163 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $155 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $135 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $18 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 48¢ $66 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $83 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 68¢ $1,000 39d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,000 39d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 77¢ $602 39d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 61¢ $603 39d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 51¢ $119 39d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 61¢ $120 39d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 71¢ $2,514 72d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 68¢ $56 72d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 99¢ $2,570 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,130.17 · official $3,130.17 (match) · 1299 history records