Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9d1…73ed other 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,346 (+7%) realized +$1,441 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate73%117W / 44L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$5,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$215
14 days−$203
30 days−$418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$1,614
other 25% −$585
politics 17% −$72
finance 15% +$280
sports 7% +$40
crypto 4% −$126
tech 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +175.1% +148.9% 82% 36% -26.0%
≤30d 29 +55.2% +40.4% 69% 38% -22.0%
≤90d 88 +37.9% +24.7% 65% 42% -15.9%
all 161 +22.4% +10.7% 73% 42% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 42% -1.9%
10% +0.1% 18% -11.3%
15% -9.5% 8% -19.8%
20% -18.4% 4% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$35 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$5,354
Realized+$1,441
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses117 / 44
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions53
Markets (closed)161 / 214
History coverage155d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $300 $290 −$10 (-3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $200 $241 +$41 (+20%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 68¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 65¢ 95¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 89¢ 62¢ $200 $141 −$59 (-30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 92¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 80¢ 90¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 88¢ 96¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 85¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $135 +$10 +7%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $129 +$10 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $125 −$51 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$19 +1900%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$10 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Dave & Buster's (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $301 −$300 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $145 +$30 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $130 +$31 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$4 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $101 +$24 +24%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $101 −$3 -3%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 09 $152 +$52 +34%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $214 −$85 -40%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $110 +$17 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $220 +$7 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 08 $111 +$14 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 08 $117 +$9 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? May 25 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 18 $305 +$6 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $106 +$4 +4%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $101 +$38 +37%
Will San Marino be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -46%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $116 −$37 -32%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $106 −$5 -5%
Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral electi May 09 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings? May 09 $111 +$5 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $2 +$16 +808%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $1 +$17 +1749%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral May 09 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 09 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $101 +$2 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang May 06 $121 +$30 +25%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Mayar Sherif vs Tamara Kor May 05 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $41 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $41 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 7d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $28 7d
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 80¢ $101 10d
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 10d
Will Dave & Buster's (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 93¢ $100 10d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 71¢ $98 10d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 72¢ $101 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 49¢ $102 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL M80 43¢ $122 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Legacy 82¢ $14 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 87¢ $15 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,353.98 · official $5,356.80 (match) · 552 history records