Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F9 0xf9d3…be02 crypto 36 markets active 12h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-5%) realized −$132 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate86%30W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$157
other 4% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +5.4% -4.7% 86% 63% -15.3%
≤30d 35 +5.4% -4.7% 86% 63% -15.3%
≤90d 35 +5.4% -4.7% 86% 63% -15.3%
all 35 +5.4% -4.7% 86% 63% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 63% -15.3%
10% -13.8% 34% -23.4%
15% -22.1% 14% -30.8%
20% -29.8% 9% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$87 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses30 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage5d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $37 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$86 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $98 +$53 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $86 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $64 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$31 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $171 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $150 +$20 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $135 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $130 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $119 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $106 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $81 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $78 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $72 +$4 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $37 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $18 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $114 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $148 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $97 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.25 · official $72.25 (match) · 95 history records