Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9d5…fba3 world 81 markets active 22h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47,236 (-19%) realized −$59,972 · open +$12,736
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 52L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,048per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$23,483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19,776
7 days−$19,776
14 days−$23,744
30 days−$23,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$53,879
other 17% +$12,744
politics 6% −$3,494
finance 1% −$92
crypto 1% −$44
culture 0% −$81
sports 0% −$11
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.0% -52.1% 0% 0% -48.2%
≤30d 13 -6.6% -15.5% 38% 38% -48.1%
≤90d 51 -10.9% -19.4% 24% 18% -42.7%
all 79 -2.1% -11.5% 34% 23% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 23% -34.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 18% -41.2%
15% -27.7% 14% -46.8%
20% -34.8% 9% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$1,515) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$525 vs −$1,407 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$23,483
Realized−$59,972
Unrealized+$12,736
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage169d
Avg bet$3,048
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $10,575 $23,316 +$12,741 (+120%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $173 $167 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 27 $46,200 −$19,743 -43%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 27 $64 −$33 -51%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 15 $60 −$24 -40%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $7,293 −$3,944 -54%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 06 $38 +$9 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 06 $82 +$10 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 04 $108 +$50 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $914 +$234 +26%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $186 −$2 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $107 −$11 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $951 +$36 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 29 $119 −$5 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 29 $955 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 29 $27 −$27 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on May 28? May 28 $191 −$16 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 28? May 28 $127 −$23 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 -43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 28? May 28 $45 −$10 -23%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $799 −$286 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $85 −$11 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $693 +$135 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? May 27 $323 −$66 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 27 $119 −$19 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 27 $117 +$2 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 27 $180 −$14 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 27 $166 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 27 $90 −$13 -14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 27 $63 −$18 -28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 27 $73 −$5 -7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 27 $110 +$334 +303%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 24 $67 −$12 -18%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $703 −$43 -6%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 10 $3,160 −$1,207 -38%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 10 $2,382 +$1,317 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $13,929 −$556 -4%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $3,688 −$1,842 -50%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 07 $11,909 −$7,072 -59%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 22 $1,710 −$666 -39%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 16 $21,975 −$19,694 -90%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 07 $14,514 −$322 -2%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 07 $1 $0 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Apr 07 $16 −$3 -19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $6,100 −$1,650 -27%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Apr 07 $2 $0 -10%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Apr 01 $4,676 −$1,763 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $177 22h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 22h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL Yes $31 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $754 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $452 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,300 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $606 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $530 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $562 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,211 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,885 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $107 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes $36 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $44 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $200 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $583 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $587 13d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $165 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $3 13d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes $2 13d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $360 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes $7 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes $46 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes $60 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes $11 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $664 13d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL No $0 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,483.47 · official $23,483.47 (match) · 1921 history records