Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf9d5…ceba
world · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$24 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage521d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $256 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $21 −$6 -27%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $82 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $77 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $77 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $87 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $55 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 $0 -11%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $93 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $13 −$5 -36%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $5 $0 +7%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 13 $18 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $29 +$2 +8%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49% or more on February 14? Mar 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Mercyhurst vs. Stonehill Feb 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Pennsylvania vs. Yale Feb 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Boston College vs. NC State Feb 14 $42 $0 +0%
Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston State Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Campbell vs. Northeastern Feb 14 $27 +$15 +56%
Will the match between PAOK and FCSB end in a draw? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Feb 13 $3 +$4 +104%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 11? Feb 13 $17 +$16 +96%
North Carolina A&T vs. Campbell Feb 11 $4 +$4 +100%
Florida A&M vs. Prairie View A&M Feb 11 $10 +$12 +113%
Will Sporting CP beat FC Porto? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Senators vs. Panthers Feb 09 $7 +$5 +70%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on January 28? Feb 04 $9 +$2 +18%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Jan 28 $14 $0 -2%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 24 $1 $0 -25%
Will Jeremiah Smith score a touchdown AND Quinn Ewers NOT throw an int Jan 11 $5 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 75% −$5
other 11% −$7
sports 9% −$11
politics 3% −$14
weather 2% +$18
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 33h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $23 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $23 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $19 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $17 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $40 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $40 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $20 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $28 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.1% -16.9% 25% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 20 -3.6% -12.8% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 22 -3.1% -12.3% 27% 0% -10.3%
all 42 -4.9% -14.0% 33% 19% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 19% -11.1%
10% -22.2% 17% -19.6%
15% -29.7% 14% -27.4%
20% -36.6% 14% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records