Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9d7…af35 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$20
world 25% +$1
politics 23% $0
sports 13% −$5
crypto 6% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -6.8% -15.7% 20% 0% -12.0%
all 52 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 10% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 10% -7.6%
10% -16.7% 8% -16.5%
15% -24.7% 4% -24.5%
20% -32.1% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage279d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $12 −$8 -68%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $17 +$6 +34%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $13 +$6 +41%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $23 +$15 +64%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $1 $0 -19%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $12 +$3 +30%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $21 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $24 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $4 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $23 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 23 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 17 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $26 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $26 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $41 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 18h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $26 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $36 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 22¢ $4 85d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $2 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 240 history records