Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf9da…f9de weather 575 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,111 (+2%) realized +$3,112 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate95%547W / 27L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day79.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days+$456
14 days+$1,449
30 days+$1,769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,967
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 11% -7.9%
≤30d 311 +4.7% -5.3% 95% 10% -8.0%
≤90d 574 +7.4% -2.8% 95% 9% -8.1%
all 574 +7.4% -2.8% 95% 9% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 9% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 7% -16.9%
15% -20.6% 6% -25.0%
20% -28.4% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×27.23 per $1 lost it wins $27.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,112
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses547 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)574 / 575
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$295
Trades / day79.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 574 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $394 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $214 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $305 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,981 +$17 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $191 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $276 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $395 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $102 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $43 +$39 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $56 +$104 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,597 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $257 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $536 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $313 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $792 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 14 $1,198 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $603 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $369 +$30 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $203 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $704 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $1,597 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,385 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $214 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $107 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $400 18m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $397 19m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $799 10h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $399 10h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $399 10h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $99 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $93 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $57 16h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $43 16h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $115 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $106 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $200 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $42 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $394 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $216 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records