Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F9 0xf9db…1f05 sports 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%62W / 25L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days−$178
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$292
other 9% +$22
economics 5% +$197
tech 1% +$10
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.5% -0.9% 100% 0% -0.9%
≤30d 20 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 20% -15.2%
≤90d 41 -17.1% -25.0% 54% 27% -11.7%
all 87 +3.3% -6.5% 71% 39% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 39% -9.1%
10% -15.5% 24% -17.8%
15% -23.6% 17% -25.8%
20% -31.1% 17% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$103 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$1,452
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses62 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage246d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,212 $1,217 +$6 (+0%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 87¢ 100¢ $110 $126 +$16 (+15%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 88¢ 92¢ $103 $109 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $100 +$10 +10%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$5 +47%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $111 −$6 -5%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $112 −$98 -87%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$44 -14%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $304 +$29 +9%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $321 +$17 +5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,003 +$121 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,279 −$1,279 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $200 +$15 +7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $373 +$1,083 +290%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $355 −$149 -42%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 04 $82 +$1 +1%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $76 +$6 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 01 $5 +$4 +72%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $102 −$93 -91%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $100 +$28 +28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 01 $1,102 +$56 +5%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $1,185 +$10 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 26 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $1,280 +$23 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $1 +$2 +191%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $16 +$10 +60%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $1,096 +$67 +6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $942 +$154 +16%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 14 $80 −$70 -88%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 13 $90 +$10 +11%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $245 −$245 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Apr 12 $155 −$155 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Apr 09 $873 +$130 +15%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $839 +$34 +4%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 04 $203 +$35 +17%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 08 $127 +$118 +92%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 07 $106 +$22 +21%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 07 $60 +$46 +76%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $136 +$19 +14%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $416 −$147 -35%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Mar 02 $116 +$9 +7%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 4 Winner Mar 01 $93 +$76 +82%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $81 +$12 +15%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Feb 28 $74 +$6 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 87¢ $110 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $110 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $100 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 8¢ $10 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 21¢ $10 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 8¢ $10 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 10¢ $10 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $10 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $10 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $10 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $1 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $2 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $1 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $0 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $2 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $0 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $1 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $2 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $0 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $0 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $0 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $0 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $0 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $1 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $3 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $1 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 0¢ $10 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 8¢ $10 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 4¢ $12 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,452.18 · official $1,452.18 (match) · 360 history records