Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf9df…421e other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$807 (+3%) realized +$747 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$949per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5,798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$190
14 days+$268
30 days+$757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% +$868
politics 25% −$407
other 20% +$325
crypto 13% +$12
finance 8% +$149
world 4% −$291
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.4% +4.4% 67% 67% +56.8%
≤30d 13 +8.2% -2.1% 54% 38% +2.3%
≤90d 18 +8.8% -1.5% 56% 33% -2.1%
all 30 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 23% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 23% -7.8%
10% -18.0% 17% -16.6%
15% -25.9% 17% -24.7%
20% -33.2% 10% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$907) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$58 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$5,798
Realized+$747
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage219d
Avg bet$949
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 79¢ 99¢ $284 $356 +$71 (+25%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $324 $312 −$12 (-4%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $203 $203 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 77¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $129 +$51 +40%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $79 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $131 +$140 +106%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $287 −$27 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $696 +$104 +15%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $680 +$840 +124%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 01 $146 −$22 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $571 −$385 -67%
Wawrinka vs. Fils: Match O/U 40.5 May 24 $812 −$16 -2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 22 $599 −$29 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 22 $361 +$46 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 22 $628 +$9 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 22 $774 +$45 +6%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $119 +$61 +51%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? Mar 31 $1,169 +$1 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 29 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 28 $907 +$24 +3%
Will Aurora win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Mar 24 $1,071 −$10 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 21 $1,397 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 21? Mar 18 $559 −$4 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 18 $376 +$174 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $620 +$21 +3%
Will Solana dip to $90 December 15-21? Dec 19 $568 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $170 on December 21? Dec 19 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 19 $2,036 −$4 -0%
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Dec 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 30 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $854 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 16 $6,862 −$7 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 14 $6,543 −$7 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $206 1h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 41¢ $330 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 51¢ $76 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $129 4d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 45¢ $271 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $79 6d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $261 7d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $287 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 87¢ $438 8d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 21¢ $131 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $800 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 77¢ $400 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 79¢ $287 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $696 15d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY New York Mets 44¢ $680 17d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 22¢ $124 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $187 21d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $146 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $571 26d
Wawrinka vs. Fils: Match O/U 40.5 BUY Under 51¢ $812 28d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $391 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 93¢ $407 29d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $636 29d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $819 29d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $628 32d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $179 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 81¢ $361 35d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $599 38d
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 65¢ $119 44d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $774 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,798.31 · official $5,797.69 (match) · 66 history records