Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9e4…24c2 sports 1144 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,423 (-3%) realized −$2,448 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%560W / 577L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$1,518est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$67
14 days−$363
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,496
other 7% −$358
crypto 2% −$728
politics 2% +$780
finance 1% −$35
tech 1% −$24
world 0% +$61
culture 0% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 43% -32.3%
≤30d 55 +11.1% +0.5% 47% 45% -17.9%
≤90d 1111 -6.9% -15.8% 49% 46% -11.8%
all 1137 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 47% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 47% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 43% -19.8%
15% -30.0% 39% -27.5%
20% -36.9% 29% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$37 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized−$2,448
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses560 / 577
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$1,518
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1137 / 1144
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 65¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31? No 80¢ 60¢ $63 $47 −$16 (-26%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win more than 99.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? U 99.5 40¢ 36¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $31 $15 −$16 (-52%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31? No 50¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 277 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 29 $19 −$31 -164%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $32 +$34 +105%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $81 −$80 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $37 +$31 +86%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$14 +89%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $47 +$22 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $23 +$37 +158%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 21 $222 −$77 -35%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $77 −$76 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$32 +63%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $30 +$24 +78%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $76 +$35 +46%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$55 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$41 +134%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? Jun 14 $31 −$8 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $15 +$165 +1101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$27 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 +$77 +300%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 +$51 +100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 +$26 +64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $24 +$19 +79%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $33 −$5 -14%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $43 +$18 +42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $101 +$61 +60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 +$17 +35%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 +$22 +43%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $51 +$33 +65%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $507 −$270 -53%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,270 −$159 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 48¢ $32 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $81 6d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 6d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 6d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $29 6d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $15 6d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $37 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $47 7d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 7d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 7d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 7d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 7d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $60 8d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $23 8d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $77 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $40 9d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 56¢ $51 10d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $51 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $82 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 10d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 61¢ $76 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $50 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $51 11d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $15 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.07 · official $510.07 (match) · 3500 history records