Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9e5…02a5 sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-7%) realized −$69 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%61W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 53% -16.1%
≤30d 107 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 53% -16.1%
≤90d 107 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 53% -16.1%
all 107 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 53% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 53% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 51% -24.1%
15% -28.4% 50% -31.4%
20% -35.4% 35% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses61 / 46
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Sebastian Ofner 49¢ 82¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+68%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Ann Li 48¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jeline Vandromme 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 70¢ 42¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $14 +$6 +44%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $15 +$15 +97%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 19 $16 −$15 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan Jun 18 $14 −$14 -99%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 18 $5 +$6 +114%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $5 +$2 +49%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $5 +$3 +61%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $5 +$5 +104%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 48¢ $5 56m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Jeline Vandromme 59¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 70¢ $5 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 49¢ $5 1h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 82¢ $20 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva SELL Alina Charaeva 100¢ $30 1h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 56¢ $9 2h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 56¢ $5 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 50¢ $5 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 50¢ $10 2h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 65¢ $8 2h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 65¢ $5 2h
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Kayo Nishimura 48¢ $5 13h
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Kayo Nishimura 48¢ $11 13h
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong BUY Alberto Lim 49¢ $10 14h
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong BUY Alberto Lim 49¢ $5 14h
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan BUY Karl Kazuma Lee 56¢ $9 17h
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan BUY Karl Kazuma Lee 56¢ $5 17h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 67¢ $8 21h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 72¢ $7 23h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 72¢ $5 23h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 49¢ $5 25h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 49¢ $5 25h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 47¢ $5 25h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 49¢ $5 25h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Christopher OConnell 51¢ $5 25h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Christopher OConnell 51¢ $5 25h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 50¢ $5 26h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 50¢ $5 26h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 65¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.93 · official $32.84 (match) · 187 history records