Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9e6…af19 other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%39W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$14
14 days+$13
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$5
other 31% +$5
politics 15% −$16
sports 13% −$23
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 11% -8.1%
≤30d 23 +0.8% -8.8% 39% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 39 -6.0% -15.0% 28% 5% -9.8%
all 97 -1.9% -11.2% 40% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -9.8%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses39 / 58
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage470d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $169 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $59 +$6 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $91 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $150 +$3 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $149 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $166 +$1 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $23 −$6 -29%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $317 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $147 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $161 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $159 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $145 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $136 +$9 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $137 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $60 −$6 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $148 −$3 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $145 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $48 −$3 -6%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $65 −$12 -19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $13 −$1 -5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $74 −$16 -21%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 17 $74 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,010 +$1 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 13 $464 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $1,010 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $1,110 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,058 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,119 −$7 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $73 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $18 $0 +3%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 15 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $169 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $169 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $71 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $46 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $108 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $10 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $34 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $150 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $151 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $149 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $46 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $46 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $164 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $164 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 359 history records