Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9e7…2fde crypto 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$160 (+2%) realized +$164 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%67W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days−$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$302
finance 13% +$14
world 13% +$14
sports 11% +$262
other 11% −$52
politics 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.4% -9.2% 63% 58% -12.2%
≤30d 47 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 47% -9.5%
≤90d 143 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 34% -10.2%
all 143 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 34% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 34% -10.2%
10% -20.1% 25% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 20% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 12% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$164
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses67 / 76
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 146
History coverage87d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Bia Mesquita 81¢ 82¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Andreas Gustafsson vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims) Daniil Donchenko 61¢ 56¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $175 −$168 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$24 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $177 −$30 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$46 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$28 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $83 −$71 -86%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $106 +$47 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$36 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $114 −$66 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $168 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$18 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $104 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $152 +$63 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $104 −$63 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$21 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $52 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $36 −$35 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $101 +$80 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $42 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $52 −$41 -79%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 30 $51 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10PM ET May 30 $111 +$8 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $55 −$7 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $144 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $126 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11PM ET May 23 $55 +$46 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 23 $38 +$14 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 17 $53 −$53 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $45 +$55 +122%
UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims) May 14 $38 +$14 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andreas Gustafsson vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight BUY Daniil Donchenko 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $72 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $84 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $93 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $146 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $34 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.44 · official $96.03 (match) · 535 history records