Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9ea…7b04 weather 724 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$183 (-3%) realized −$186 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%210W / 444L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$93
14 days−$158
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$177
world 23% +$80
sports 20% +$231
crypto 17% −$295
weather 9% −$148
finance 3% +$22
tech 1% +$7
politics 0% −$24
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -20.8% -28.4% 37% 35% -5.2%
≤30d 592 -17.1% -25.0% 31% 29% -16.2%
≤90d 654 -16.8% -24.7% 32% 30% -15.9%
all 654 -16.8% -24.7% 32% 30% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 30% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 27% -23.9%
15% -38.5% 22% -31.3%
20% -44.5% 19% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,497
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses210 / 444
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions70
Markets (closed)654 / 724
History coverage50d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 654 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 54¢ $654 $650 −$4 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 65¢ 69¢ $311 $335 +$24 (+8%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Over 89¢ 89¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 77¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 52¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in June? No 90¢ 92¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $15 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 86¢ 95¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? No 75¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 74¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 44¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$12 +24%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +75%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $112 +$5 +5%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 +$21 +41%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 +$30 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $51 +$18 +34%
StarCraft II: Cure vs SKillous (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs Jun 19 $49 +$12 +25%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$7 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$8 +52%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$5 +75%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $26 +$5 +21%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $37 +$11 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 +$7 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$28 +55%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +16%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 +$13 +33%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: US Yacoub El Mansour O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $31 +$8 +26%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$6 +21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$9 +60%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $28 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $103 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $103 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 47h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $51 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 2d
StarCraft II: Cure vs SKillous (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs SELL Cure 99¢ $61 2d
StarCraft II: Cure vs SKillous (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs BUY Cure 78¢ $49 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY K27 76¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $51 2d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $51 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $51 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,496.61 · official $1,497.07 (match) · 1866 history records