Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9ef…7ee6 sports 485 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,337 (-3%) realized −$2,337 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate73%353W / 132L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$566est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$15
14 days+$102
30 days−$1,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,411
other 2% −$135
crypto 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +4.8% -5.2% 68% 8% -9.8%
≤30d 133 -2.9% -12.1% 70% 20% -13.1%
≤90d 431 -5.0% -14.1% 71% 18% -12.9%
all 485 -2.9% -12.1% 73% 19% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 19% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 7% -20.9%
15% -28.2% 4% -28.5%
20% -35.3% 2% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$39 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,337
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses353 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$566
Open positions0
Markets (closed)485 / 485
History coverage102d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 485 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $384 +$23 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $172 +$5 +3%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $853 +$39 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $200 +$1 +0%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $301 +$18 +6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$5 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$39 -78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$63 -63%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $182 $0 -0%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $154 −$18 -12%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$3 -3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $232 +$16 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$18 -58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$99 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $17 +$112 +662%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $131 +$3 +2%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $40 +$10 +24%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -46%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $200 +$9 +4%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $223 −$22 -10%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $51 +$3 +5%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $451 +$13 +3%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $651 +$12 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 11 $400 +$7 +2%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $151 −$46 -30%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $351 +$13 +4%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $9 +$1 +16%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $20 +$2 +12%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $30 +$1 +3%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $20 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $382 −$25 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $302 +$57 +19%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 09 $30 −$27 -88%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $100 +$11 +11%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 57¢ $22 16m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 52¢ $20 16m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 78¢ $15 45m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 71¢ $14 46m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 88¢ $35 57m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 86¢ $68 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 84¢ $44 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 80¢ $56 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 75¢ $37 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 71¢ $78 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 32¢ $38 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 68¢ $303 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 49¢ $61 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $20 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $30 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 89¢ $111 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 15h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 60¢ $5 21h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 81¢ $5 22h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 46¢ $33 22h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 41¢ $31 22h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 51¢ $25 22h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 57¢ $10 22h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 57¢ $10 22h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 64¢ $10 22h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 61¢ $104 23h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 58¢ $101 23h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $207 24h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 99¢ $101 24h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 98¢ $100 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2723 history records