Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F9 0xf9f1…23ee crypto 1070 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 166d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$534 (+3%) realized +$524 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%381W / 674L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$293
7 days+$443
14 days+$443
30 days+$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$197
sports 29% +$430
other 23% +$104
world 0% +$49
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +37.9% +24.8% 56% 56% +24.0%
≤30d 59 +37.9% +24.8% 56% 56% +24.0%
≤90d 264 -5.3% -14.3% 30% 29% -0.9%
all 1055 -1.0% -10.4% 36% 35% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 35% -7.6%
10% -19.0% 34% -16.5%
15% -26.8% 33% -24.5%
20% -34.0% 33% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$476
Realized+$524
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses381 / 674
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1055 / 1070
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1055 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $151 $168 +$17 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $51 $47 −$4 (-7%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 66¢ $22 $33 +$10 (+46%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $27 $32 +$6 (+20%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 8¢ 14¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 22¢ $24 $11 −$12 (-52%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 22¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $22 +$28 +133%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$26 +113%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$27 +117%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$27 +117%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 +$26 +108%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 +$29 +138%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$27 +117%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +47%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$30 +150%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +22%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 +$27 +117%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $16 +$34 +223%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $22 +$28 +133%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 +$29 +138%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 +$31 +163%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 +$34 +212%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 +$31 +163%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $14 +$36 +257%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $24 +$26 +108%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $24 +$26 +113%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $22 +$28 +133%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 +$28 +133%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$26 +113%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $22 +$28 +122%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$26 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$28 +138%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$30 +156%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $21 +$29 +138%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$85 +413%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$33 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $24 37m
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 51m
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 1h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 1h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $85 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $7 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $24 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $21 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $22 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 14¢ $14 8h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $27 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $22 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $24 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $18 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 10h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $361 13h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $12 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $7 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $20 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $10 26h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $23 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 22¢ $2 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 22¢ $9 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $476.26 · official $476.20 (match) · 3500 history records