Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F9 0xf9f7…d6ca crypto 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$907 (+26%) realized +$870 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%75W / 64L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$507
7 days+$1,059
14 days+$1,139
30 days+$838
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1,241
crypto 24% −$155
other 22% −$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +53.4% +38.8% 81% 81% +47.2%
≤30d 139 -9.5% -18.1% 54% 43% +14.8%
≤90d 139 -9.5% -18.1% 54% 43% +14.8%
all 139 -9.5% -18.1% 54% 43% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 43% +14.8%
10% -25.9% 32% +3.8%
15% -33.1% 24% -6.2%
20% -39.6% 20% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$13 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$870
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses75 / 64
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage27d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 67¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$116 +114%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 +$63 +124%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $102 +$107 +105%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$84 +83%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$131 +65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$84 +83%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$60 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$80 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $122 +$118 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$61 +60%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$54 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $142 −$140 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $12 −$6 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 03 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 03 $68 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $46 +$18 +39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $101 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $28 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 31 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 31 $6 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $102 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $101 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 21h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $122 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 92¢ $162 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 5¢ $0 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 7d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 9d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $51 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $48 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 11d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $142 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $6 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.87 · official $136.87 (match) · 338 history records