Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9fb…45b9 weather 133 markets active 5h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-11%) realized −$52 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%74W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$14
14 days−$30
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$36
world 10% −$1
crypto 8% −$10
sports 3% −$7
other 2% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -11.6% -20.0% 51% 49% -19.3%
≤30d 103 -6.7% -15.6% 61% 60% -14.8%
≤90d 132 -11.2% -19.7% 56% 52% -19.9%
all 132 -11.2% -19.7% 56% 52% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 52% -19.9%
10% -27.4% 33% -27.5%
15% -34.4% 6% -34.5%
20% -40.8% 3% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses74 / 58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage83d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? No 78¢ 48¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -57%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +17%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 36¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 29¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 38¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 53¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 54¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 31¢ $1 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 40h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $4 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 43¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 66¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $4 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.42 · official $2.42 (match) · 317 history records