Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:11:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F9 0xf9fb…b800 politics 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$12
politics 41% −$14
sports 10% −$24
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 95 -0.6% -10.1% 3% 3% -9.5%
all 113 -6.2% -15.1% 5% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -23.2% 5% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×10.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage119d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $493 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $517 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $244 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $278 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $256 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $282 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $204 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 02 $269 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $217 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $232 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $282 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $263 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $233 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $291 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $294 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $288 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 19d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $274 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $275 29d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $221 32d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $221 33d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 34d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 36d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $268 36d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $268 37d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $249 37d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $249 39d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $208 39d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 40d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $234 40d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $234 41d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $269 41d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $80 45d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $112 45d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $77 45d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 48d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 48d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $278 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 322 history records