Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9fc…b5f0 sports 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$155 (-13%) realized −$131 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%61W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$14
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$122
other 10% −$48
crypto 6% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.6% -3.5% 29% 29% +24.9%
≤30d 23 -7.9% -16.7% 35% 35% -12.9%
≤90d 131 -9.4% -18.1% 46% 42% -24.0%
all 132 -9.2% -17.9% 46% 42% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 42% -23.5%
10% -25.7% 32% -30.8%
15% -32.9% 27% -37.5%
20% -39.5% 23% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses61 / 71
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)132 / 138
History coverage98d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$18 +343%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 +$18 +203%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $2 +$3 +139%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 +$5 +225%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $2 +$3 +132%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 +$2 +110%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $1 +$1 +109%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winn May 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $1 +$1 +108%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $2 +$9 +426%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 12 $4 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 11 $1 $0 +46%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $7 +$51 +708%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner May 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner May 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 03 $3 +$7 +237%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 02 $4 +$6 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 13¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $10 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $2 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $27 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 32¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 1¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 2¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 3¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 7¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 12¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY TYLOO 9¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 16¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 17¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 15¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY M80 4¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY M80 7¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL TYLOO 22¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY TYLOO 10¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY TYLOO 16¢ $2 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner BUY Lynn Vision 8¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner BUY Lynn Vision 19¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner SELL BIG 57¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner BUY BIG 23¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 77¢ $7 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 23¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Gaimin Gladiators 18¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.16 · official $21.16 (match) · 346 history records