Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9fe…4f5d sports 121 markets active 2d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$824 (-19%) realized −$824 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%45W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$780
14 days−$799
30 days−$905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$491
crypto 23% −$91
other 16% −$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -49.4% -54.2% 22% 22% -53.3%
≤30d 121 -26.6% -33.6% 37% 34% -28.3%
≤90d 121 -26.6% -33.6% 37% 34% -28.3%
all 121 -26.6% -33.6% 37% 34% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 34% -28.3%
10% -39.9% 31% -35.2%
15% -45.7% 24% -41.4%
20% -51.1% 21% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$25 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$824
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses45 / 76
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage24d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $67 −$66 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-23? Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $121 −$121 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $194 +$100 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$32 +156%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$7 -65%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $35 +$11 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 +$54 +132%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $30 +$29 +95%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $50 +$51 +101%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $30 −$2 -7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +80%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $60 +$20 +32%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $81 +$22 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $67 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $15 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $25 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $59 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 87¢ $194 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $194 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $43 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $43 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $70 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $52 4d
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals SELL Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $35 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records