Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa00…89ac other 63 markets active 18h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$17
other 45% −$25
crypto 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -24.9% -32.0% 35% 24% -21.3%
≤30d 49 -27.2% -34.1% 20% 16% -30.2%
≤90d 49 -27.2% -34.1% 20% 16% -30.2%
all 53 -19.2% -26.9% 25% 21% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 21% -13.4%
10% -33.9% 21% -21.7%
15% -40.3% 21% -29.3%
20% -46.1% 21% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 40
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)53 / 63
History coverage237d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $49 $60 +$11 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $24 $45 +$20 (+83%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $49 $41 −$8 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $22 $29 +$6 (+28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $32 $25 −$7 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-27%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 +$3 +119%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $11 −$2 -18%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $11 $0 +3%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3 +$5 +160%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $12 −$4 -33%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $9 +$11 +134%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -93%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$2 -19%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$18 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -77%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 14 $18 −$10 -54%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Phan Van Giang be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Com Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $68 +$40 +58%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $18 −$2 -12%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 −$10 -52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -21%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +146%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $46 −$10 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $9 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 55¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 40¢ $5 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 40¢ $1 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 40¢ $2 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 60¢ $12 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $8 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 5d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.31 · official $270.31 (match) · 137 history records