Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfa01…f0a7 sports 1028 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,193 (-4%) realized −$9,548 · open +$355
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%580W / 386L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Fees−$2,283est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$7,917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$405
7 days−$534
14 days−$2,728
30 days−$9,268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$12,179
other 12% −$810
politics 2% +$576
world 1% −$1,178
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +6.6% -3.5% 63% 49% -11.1%
≤30d 457 -8.2% -16.9% 56% 46% -18.7%
≤90d 966 -2.8% -12.1% 60% 52% -15.1%
all 966 -2.8% -12.1% 60% 52% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 52% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 42% -23.2%
15% -28.2% 33% -30.6%
20% -35.2% 25% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$202 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$7,917
Realized−$9,548
Unrealized+$355
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses580 / 386
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,283
Open positions62
Markets (closed)966 / 1028
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$229
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 966 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 49¢ 100¢ $196 $400 +$204 (+104%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 94¢ $325 $327 +$2 (+1%)
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 84¢ 100¢ $252 $300 +$48 (+19%)
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Nakashima 49¢ 100¢ $147 $300 +$153 (+104%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $281 $284 +$3 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $320 $282 −$38 (-12%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jessica Pegula 65¢ 89¢ $195 $267 +$72 (+37%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Brandon Nakashima 79¢ 100¢ $197 $250 +$52 (+27%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 70¢ $252 $247 −$5 (-2%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $240 $241 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $220 $235 +$15 (+7%)
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $216 $222 +$6 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Under 89¢ 88¢ $222 $221 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $212 $214 +$3 (+1%)
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $221 $213 −$8 (-4%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 53¢ 52¢ $212 $210 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $236 $208 −$28 (-12%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 54¢ 54¢ $187 $186 −$2 (-1%)
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 93¢ $174 $184 +$10 (+6%)
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jay Clarke 38¢ 76¢ $93 $184 +$91 (+99%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $182 $174 −$8 (-5%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $170 $173 +$3 (+2%)
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) DR Congo 87¢ 86¢ $174 $173 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $164 $171 +$7 (+4%)
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 79¢ 81¢ $164 $169 +$4 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $294 +$47 +16%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $233 +$67 +29%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $226 +$24 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $377 +$23 +6%
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 17 $28 −$22 -81%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $275 +$125 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $252 +$48 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $318 +$17 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$46 +23%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $283 +$17 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $267 +$33 +12%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $206 +$44 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $186 +$14 +7%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $241 +$59 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $159 −$41 -26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $140 −$138 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $149 +$151 +101%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $177 +$123 +70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $182 −$180 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $227 +$173 +76%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $188 +$312 +165%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $478 +$22 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $336 −$333 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $113 −$112 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $151 +$4 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$229 +325%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $113 +$87 +76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $330 −$328 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $164 −$162 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $286 +$13 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $302 +$44 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $479 +$284 +59%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $474 +$14 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $200 −$199 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $318 +$82 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $202 +$46 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $402 −$400 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $341 +$110 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $173 −$171 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $314 +$186 +59%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $259 −$255 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $402 +$16 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $224 +$76 +34%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $343 +$7 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $188 +$69 +37%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $198 +$157 +79%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $233 −$231 -99%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $135 +$125 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) BUY Gauff 50¢ $1 21m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $71 39m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $32 54m
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Yi Zhou 59¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $78 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $9 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $9 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $60 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $133 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $9 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $40 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $7 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $6 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $6 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $6 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $133 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 79¢ $199 1h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 87¢ $175 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $254 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 65¢ $197 1h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 84¢ $253 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 38¢ $94 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 36¢ $123 1h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Yi Zhou 59¢ $120 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $146 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 59¢ $179 1h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 53¢ $215 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,916.86 · official $7,890.68 (match) · 3500 history records