Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfa06…74c3 sports 1258 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,211 (-3%) realized −$1,194 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate76%1039W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day50.5pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,743
7 days−$1,782
14 days−$1,803
30 days−$1,797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$452
other 27% +$257
crypto 2% −$115
politics 1% −$63
weather 1% +$27
tech 0% −$47
world 0% +$27
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -47.8% -52.7% 44% 43% -45.7%
≤30d 540 -22.9% -30.2% 66% 63% -25.1%
≤90d 1366 -10.3% -18.9% 76% 67% -14.6%
all 1366 -10.3% -18.9% 76% 67% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 67% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 13% -22.8%
15% -33.7% 2% -30.3%
20% -40.2% 1% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$22 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$1,194
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1039 / 327
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1366 / 1258
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day50.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Declan Rice: 1+ assists No 82¢ 89¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 86¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Ghana 73¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-4.5) Panama 88¢ 87¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
England to score first vs. Panama? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Harry Kane: 1+ assists No 80¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists No 83¢ 78¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? No 81¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 326 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 24? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Jun 27 $59 −$59 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 215.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 27 $3 −$7 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jun 27 $59 −$59 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 26? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Sabres vs. Bruins Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Hawks Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists BUY No 83¢ $19 29m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 84¢ $20 42m
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Ghana 73¢ $20 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $20 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $24 1h
England to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Shara Magomedov 99¢ $25 2h
Declan Rice: 1+ assists BUY No 82¢ $7 2h
Declan Rice: 1+ assists BUY No 82¢ $5 2h
Declan Rice: 1+ assists BUY No 82¢ $9 2h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 78¢ $20 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 84¢ $20 3h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L SELL Los Angeles Thieves 99¢ $25 3h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Los Angeles Thieves 79¢ $20 4h
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY Panama 88¢ $20 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $23 4h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy SELL Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 99¢ $24 5h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 84¢ $20 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 27? BUY No 85¢ $20 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $20 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? SELL Yes 97¢ $22 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 8h
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) SELL Shandong Taishan FC 97¢ $23 9h
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) BUY Shandong Taishan FC 84¢ $20 12h
IR Iran to win the second half? SELL No 100¢ $26 15h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $23 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 16h
New Zealand to score first vs. Belgium? SELL No 99¢ $24 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.39 · official $202.39 (match) · 3500 history records