Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa07…dd2a tech 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%64W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% $0
tech 39% $0
crypto 17% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 40 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 64 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses64 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage167d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of March? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of February? Mar 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of February? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 02 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3 43h
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $1 51d
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $4 52d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 52d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 52d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $4 52d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 55d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $2 65d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 71d
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 71d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $2 72d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 73d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $3 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 74d
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? BUY No 100¢ $2 74d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 75d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 76d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 76d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $3 84d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 85d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.58 · official $32.58 (match) · 136 history records