Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa0d…72f9 sports 506 markets active 4h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+2%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%228W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$44
14 days+$23
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$87
other 4% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +21.5% +10.0% 54% 54% +9.7%
≤30d 113 +8.6% -1.8% 49% 49% -11.8%
≤90d 479 +1.2% -8.5% 45% 45% -12.0%
all 506 +4.9% -5.1% 45% 45% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 45% -9.0%
10% -14.2% 45% -17.7%
15% -22.5% 45% -25.7%
20% -30.1% 45% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses228 / 278
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)506 / 506
History coverage96d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 506 Trades
no open positions (274 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $5 +$6 +119%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $5 +$4 +89%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$7 +140%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $5 +$11 +226%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$11 +216%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 +$4 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$8 +165%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +90%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$8 +152%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 20h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4 20h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 45¢ $5 21h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $5 21h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ $5 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $5 27h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 30¢ $5 46h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 46h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $5 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $5 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $5 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 3d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $5 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 43¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $5 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $5 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.48 · official $38.48 (match) · 774 history records