Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FA 0xfa0e…baa2 other 30 markets active 2d ago coverage 104d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$1 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate52%14W / 13L

Drawdown98%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$3

14 days−$1

30 days−$1

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+10.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+56.1%	+41.2%	40%	20%	-34.2%
≤30d	7	+66.8%	+50.9%	57%	43%	-16.9%
≤90d	7	+66.8%	+50.9%	57%	43%	-16.9%
all	27	+22.5%	+10.8%	52%	48%	-9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.8%	48%	-9.1%
10%	+0.2%	44%	-17.8%
15%	-9.5%	41%	-25.7%
20%	-18.3%	33%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% too few recent

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +25% → late +20% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized−$1

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses14 / 13

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 30

History coverage104d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown98%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	7¢	$2	$1	−$1 (-30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek	Jun 18	$3	−$1	-32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$3	$0	+7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1	Jun 15	$1	+$3	+505%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$1	+$2	+155%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$1	$0	+32%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	Mar 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?	Mar 17	$4	+$2	+39%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17?	Mar 17	$2	+$1	+40%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-07?	Mar 12	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-03-07?	Mar 12	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	Mar 12	$5	−$5	-100%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-07?	Mar 12	$2	−$2	-100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09?	Mar 12	$7	−$7	-100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?	Mar 12	$2	+$2	+133%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$5	+$4	+72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$2	−$1	-60%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$2	+$7	+376%
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-03-08?	Mar 09	$3	−$3	-84%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-08?	Mar 09	$5	+$3	+54%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08?	Mar 08	$3	+$6	+233%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08?	Mar 08	$2	+$1	+53%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-07?	Mar 07	$1	+$1	+67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-06?	Mar 07	$1	$0	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek	SELL	41¢	$2	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek	BUY	58¢	$3	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$4	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg	BUY	26¢	$1	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	93¢	$3	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1	BUY	16¢	$1	5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o	BUY	5¢	$1	7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2	8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1	9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1	9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	9d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	93d
Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	BUY Yes	34¢	$2	93d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	93d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6	94d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$1	94d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$3	94d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3	94d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$2	94d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?	BUY Yes	43¢	$2	100d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5	100d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	101d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	SELL Yes	16¢	$1	101d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	40¢	$2	101d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	101d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	101d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2	101d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09?	BUY Yes	49¢	$7	102d
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-03-08?	SELL Yes	9¢	$0	103d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.40 · official $1.40 (match) · 54 history records