Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa15…166b other 75 markets active 1d ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%26W / 48L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$11
sports 22% +$1
world 21% −$4
economics 12% $0
politics 7% −$1
crypto 2% +$2
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 24 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 4% -9.5%
all 74 -6.0% -15.0% 35% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 4% -9.8%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses26 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage529d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $94 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $93 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $85 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $85 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $84 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $83 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $91 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $87 −$5 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 27 $67 −$2 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $37 +$4 +11%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $622 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $753 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $572 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $564 +$3 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $118 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 04 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 30 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $96 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? May 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 27 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 22 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 23? May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 22 $2 $0 +11%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 21 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Esteban Ocon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $35 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $84 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $26 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $58 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $76 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $83 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $93 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $94 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $80 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $14 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $94 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $94 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $93 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $35 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $33 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $94 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $94 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $50 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $36 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $85 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $74 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $11 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $85 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $34 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.57 · official $2.57 (match) · 245 history records