Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa17…bbe6 weather 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$69 (+1%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate76%29W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$4
weather 26% +$2
sports 1% +$76
world 1% −$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 83% 0% -9.5%
all 38 +2.4% -7.3% 76% 3% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 3% -8.6%
10% -16.2% 3% -17.3%
15% -24.3% 3% -25.3%
20% -31.7% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.44 per $1 lost it wins $8.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$481
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses29 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage177d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 4? Jun 02 $255 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 27? May 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or below on April May 13 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 12? May 13 $242 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 5? Apr 05 $189 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $691 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on March 25 Mar 25 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 24? Mar 24 $106 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 16 $425 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $442 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $311 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 6? Mar 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C or higher on Febr Mar 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February Mar 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Feb 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on Febr Feb 28 $58 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $57 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe Feb 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on February Feb 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on February 10? Feb 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C or below on January 30? Feb 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on January 29 Feb 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February Feb 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February Feb 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February Feb 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on January 30? Feb 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Fe Feb 19 $26 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Bulls Feb 19 $79 +$76 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or higher on January 2 Jan 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on January 26? Jan 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on January 26? Jan 27 $26 $0 +0%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? Jan 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C or higher on Janu Jan 20 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $123 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $255 20d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $103 27d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $242 75d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or below on April BUY No 100¢ $147 76d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $189 79d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $690 82d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $691 83d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on March 25 BUY No 100¢ $118 91d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $798 92d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $106 92d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $799 93d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $524 95d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $525 95d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $585 96d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $586 97d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $699 98d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $699 98d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $425 98d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $425 99d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $439 102d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $440 103d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $442 105d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $442 105d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $311 106d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $311 109d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $44 109d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February BUY No 100¢ $50 115d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 90¢ $52 115d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on Febr BUY No 100¢ $58 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $481.28 · official $481.28 (match) · 95 history records