Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfa1c…e369 crypto 631 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$867 (+4%) realized +$867 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%298W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$63
14 days−$132
30 days−$1,884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$337
sports 34% +$417
other 3% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 42% +2.2%
≤30d 116 -34.6% -40.9% 34% 32% -39.0%
≤90d 618 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 45% -11.3%
all 631 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 46% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 46% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 44% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 38% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 29% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$27 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$867
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses298 / 333
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)631 / 631
History coverage94d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 631 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$45 +442%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $9 +$10 +101%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$3 +5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$15 +53%
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$8 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 +$11 +60%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $177 +$42 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $182 −$181 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$13 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $162 +$49 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $34 +$19 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 07 $157 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $32 −$30 -94%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $843 +$371 +44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $238 −$236 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$17 +66%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $40 −$39 -99%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $46 −$46 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $77 −$76 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $89 +$39 +44%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $113 −$111 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $38 −$37 -99%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) May 31 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $9 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $40 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 4¢ $1 28h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $38 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $24 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 2d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $20 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $180 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $177 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $182 7d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $33 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1859 history records