Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:39:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FA 0xfa1d…c957 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,289 (+39%) realized +$1,289 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate29%10W / 24L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$96per market

Trades / day45.3pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-22.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	34	-14.8%	-22.9%	29%	26%	+39.3%
≤30d	34	-14.8%	-22.9%	29%	26%	+39.3%
≤90d	34	-14.8%	-22.9%	29%	26%	+39.3%
all	34	-14.8%	-22.9%	29%	26%	+39.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover45.3 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-22.9%	26%	+39.3%
10% ← realistic here	-30.3%	24%	+26.0%
15%	-37.0%	21%	+13.8%
20%	-43.2%	18%	+2.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt +54% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -37% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$171 vs −$20 · ×8.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.61 per $1 lost it wins $3.61

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,289

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses10 / 24

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions0

Markets (closed)34 / 34

History coverage2d

Avg bet$96

Trades / day45.3

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 34 Trades

no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$242	+$144	+59%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$16	−$16	-98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$15	−$7	-48%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$15	−$8	-53%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$8	+$49	+596%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1,035	+$235	+23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime?	Jun 18	$16	−$8	-50%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$8	−$8	-97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$8	−$8	-97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia?	Jun 18	$38	+$6	+15%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$89	+$58	+65%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$154	+$5	+3%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$54	−$54	-100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$24	−$3	-12%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$17	−$16	-91%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$24	+$6	+24%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$36	−$35	-97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$567	+$927	+163%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5	Jun 16	$27	−$25	-92%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway?	Jun 16	$62	−$60	-97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$31	−$19	-62%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$24	−$23	-97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway?	Jun 16	$10	−$6	-59%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway?	Jun 16	$35	−$34	-97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$28	+$87	+313%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$51	−$27	-53%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$31	−$27	-88%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$508	+$198	+39%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$19	−$19	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$48	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	85¢	$338	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$212	2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	20¢	$15	2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	25¢	$16	2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL Yes	6¢	$8	2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL Yes	4¢	$7	2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa?	SELL Yes	100¢	$57	4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$30	4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	8¢	$15	4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15	4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	14¢	$53	4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	14¢	$17	4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	71¢	$407	6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	72¢	$839	6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	44¢	$8	6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	45¢	$8	6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	45¢	$8	6h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	11¢	$8	6h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	12¢	$8	6h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	14¢	$8	6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$297	9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$202	9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$456	9h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia?	SELL Yes	20¢	$44	19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia?	BUY Yes	17¢	$16	19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia?	BUY Yes	17¢	$6	19h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records