Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa1f…814f other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+4%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%18W / 45L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$48
world 29% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 60% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.5%
all 63 +2.6% -7.2% 29% 2% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 2% -5.8%
10% -16.1% 2% -14.9%
15% -24.2% 2% -23.1%
20% -31.6% 2% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×22.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.02 per $1 lost it wins $25.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses18 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage326d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $57 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $57 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $28 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +1%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $31 +$49 +154%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Nov 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Nov 14 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $56 $0 +1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $25 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $12 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $13 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $25 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $28 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $28 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $28 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $28 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $28 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $28 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 10d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $31 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.35 · official $3.35 (match) · 226 history records