Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FA 0xfa20…efae sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$684 (-20%) realized −$679 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$50
14 days−$32
30 days−$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$251
other 26% −$511
politics 21% −$6
crypto 9% +$76
finance 4% −$4
tech 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 50% +2.4%
≤30d 7 -40.3% -46.0% 43% 43% -47.6%
≤90d 18 -22.5% -29.9% 44% 33% -28.7%
all 18 -22.5% -29.9% 44% 33% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 33% -28.7%
10% -36.6% 28% -35.5%
15% -42.7% 17% -41.8%
20% -48.3% 11% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$136 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$679
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage51d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $201 $196 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $133 +$97 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $179 +$21 +12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $84 −$82 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $383 −$378 -99%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 21 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $406 +$294 +72%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $530 −$530 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $324 +$76 +24%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 May 11 $53 −$28 -53%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 04 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 04 $15 $0 +2%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 03 $442 +$158 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $52 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 03 $130 −$4 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 03 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 29 $272 −$272 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $204 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $133 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $179 44h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $11 44h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $58 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $84 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $383 14d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 34d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 34d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Down 53¢ $102 37d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Down 53¢ $106 37d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Down 53¢ $106 37d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Down 53¢ $106 37d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Down 53¢ $4 37d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Down 53¢ $106 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? BUY No 81¢ $324 38d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 SELL Yes 26¢ $25 39d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 BUY Yes 53¢ $53 40d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 36¢ $27 45d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 45d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 45d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 45d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 45d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 45d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 45d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 45d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 45d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 45d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.35 · official $196.35 (match) · 83 history records