trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 90¢ | $243,821 | $235,348 | −$8,473 (-3%) |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 82¢ | 81¢ | $8,507 | $8,443 | −$64 (-1%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | $6,393 | $6,593 | +$200 (+3%) |
| Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-01? | No | 87¢ | 0¢ | $2,800 | $0 | −$2,800 (-100%) |
| Spread: Warriors (-8.5) | Mavericks | 50¢ | 0¢ | $1,000 | $0 | −$1,000 (-100%) |
| Vikings vs. Cowboys | Cowboys | 0¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Auburn Tigers | North Carolina State Wolfpack | 28¢ | 0¢ | $4,000 | $0 | −$4,000 (-100%) |
| Spread: Patriots (-33.5) | Patriots | 64¢ | 0¢ | $121,868 | $0 | −$121,868 (-100%) |
| 76ers vs. Hornets | Hornets | 84¢ | 0¢ | $9,996 | $0 | −$9,996 (-100%) |
| Pistons vs. Pacers | Pacers | 7¢ | 0¢ | $60 | $0 | −$60 (-100%) |
| Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines | 98¢ | 0¢ | $4,915 | $0 | −$4,915 (-100%) |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | Jazz | 23¢ | 0¢ | $32,133 | $0 | −$32,133 (-100%) |
| Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $390 | $0 | −$390 (-100%) |
| Quinnipiac Bobcats vs. Manhattan Jaspers | Quinnipiac Bobcats | 95¢ | 0¢ | $4,750 | $0 | −$4,750 (-100%) |
| Houston vs. Baylor | Baylor | 43¢ | 0¢ | $10,302 | $0 | −$10,302 (-100%) |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $7,759 | $0 | −$7,759 (-100%) |
| Men's Group C - Germany vs. Latvia | Germany | 72¢ | 0¢ | $3,900 | $0 | −$3,900 (-100%) |
| Bears vs. 49ers | Bears | 31¢ | 0¢ | $12,600 | $0 | −$12,600 (-100%) |
| Kings vs. Blues | Blues | 54¢ | 0¢ | $1,000 | $0 | −$1,000 (-100%) |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $200 | $0 | −$200 (-100%) |
| Lakers vs. Jazz | Jazz | 15¢ | 0¢ | $145 | $0 | −$145 (-100%) |
| Flames vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 | Under | 66¢ | 0¢ | $3,956 | $0 | −$3,956 (-100%) |
| Pelicans vs. Bulls | Bulls | 77¢ | 0¢ | $2,858 | $0 | −$2,858 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Celtics | Thunder | 56¢ | 0¢ | $12,554 | $0 | −$12,554 (-100%) |
| Cowboys vs. Lions | Cowboys | 8¢ | 0¢ | $6,112 | $0 | −$6,112 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Warriors (-8.5) | Jun 12 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Vikings vs. Cowboys | Jun 12 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Auburn Tigers | Jun 12 | $4,000 | −$4,000 | -100% |
| Spread: Patriots (-33.5) | Jun 12 | $121,868 | −$121,980 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Pacers | Jun 12 | $60 | −$201 | -332% |
| Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines | Jun 12 | $4,915 | −$4,915 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | Jun 12 | $32,133 | −$32,133 | -100% |
| Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? | Jun 12 | $390 | −$390 | -100% |
| Quinnipiac Bobcats vs. Manhattan Jaspers | Jun 12 | $4,750 | −$4,750 | -100% |
| Houston vs. Baylor | Jun 12 | $10,302 | −$10,302 | -100% |
| Men's Group C - Germany vs. Latvia | Jun 12 | $3,900 | −$3,900 | -100% |
| Bears vs. 49ers | Jun 12 | $12,600 | −$10,562 | -84% |
| Kings vs. Blues | Jun 12 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? | Jun 12 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Jazz | Jun 12 | $145 | −$145 | -100% |
| Flames vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 | Jun 12 | $3,956 | −$3,959 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Bulls | Jun 12 | $2,858 | −$2,858 | -100% |
| Cowboys vs. Lions | Jun 12 | $6,112 | −$11,171 | -183% |
| Wizards vs. Bulls | Jun 12 | $500 | +$743 | +148% |
| Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech | Jun 12 | $541 | −$541 | -100% |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Liberty Flames | Jun 12 | $5,000 | −$5,000 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 214.5 | Jun 12 | $4,450 | −$4,450 | -100% |
| South Carolina Gamecocks vs. LSU Tigers | Jun 12 | $700 | −$700 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Jun 12 | $14,900 | −$14,900 | -100% |
| Duke vs. Virginia | Jun 12 | $32,765 | −$32,765 | -100% |
| Blues vs. Flyers | Jun 12 | $3,000 | −$3,000 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Rockets | Jun 12 | $459 | +$883 | +192% |
| Avalanche vs. Predators: O/U 6.5 | Jun 12 | $4,901 | −$4,901 | -100% |
| Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? | Jun 12 | $3,600 | −$3,600 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Heat | Jun 12 | $248 | −$248 | -100% |
| Nets vs. Pistons | Jun 12 | $20,367 | −$49,521 | -243% |
| Blues vs. Flames: O/U 5.5 | Jun 12 | $3,552 | −$3,552 | -100% |
| Wizards vs. Magic | Jun 12 | $8,000 | −$8,000 | -100% |
| Will another company be accused of insider trading? | Jun 12 | $6,500 | −$6,500 | -100% |
| Spread: Celtics (-17.5) | Jun 12 | $2,500 | −$2,500 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | Jun 12 | $2,380 | −$2,380 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Warriors | Jun 12 | $5,110 | −$5,110 | -100% |
| Miami vs. Ole Miss | Jun 12 | $241 | −$241 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Cavaliers | Jun 12 | $3,460 | −$3,460 | -100% |
| Will Gemini be accused of insider trading? | Jun 12 | $170 | −$170 | -100% |
| Packers vs. Bears | Jun 12 | $168 | −$572 | -341% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | Jun 12 | $1,478 | −$1,478 | -100% |
| Panthers vs. Devils | Jun 12 | $10,120 | −$10,120 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Jazz | Jun 12 | $19,999 | −$31,526 | -158% |
| Spread: 49ers (-6.5) | Jun 12 | $20,000 | −$20,000 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline | Jun 12 | $3,000 | −$3,000 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 105.5 | Jun 12 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Pacific Tigers vs. Portland Pilots | Jun 12 | $3,944 | −$3,933 | -100% |
| Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans | Jun 12 | $2,000 | −$2,000 | -100% |
| Stetson Hatters vs. Lipscomb Bisons | Jun 12 | $3,009 | −$3,009 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 142 | -92.0% | -92.7% | 2% | 2% | -99.3% |
| ≤30d | 151 | -88.7% | -89.8% | 5% | 3% | -97.0% |
| ≤90d | 394 | -44.0% | -49.3% | 43% | 15% | -31.7% |
| all | 408 | -42.9% | -48.4% | 44% | 16% | -31.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -48.4% | 16% | -31.6% |
| 10% | -53.3% | 9% | -38.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -57.8% | 6% | -44.1% |
| 20% | -62.0% | 5% | -49.6% |