Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

FA 0xfa23…8693 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$13 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$93per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 235d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-28.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤30d	1	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤90d	1	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
all	4	-20.4%	-28.0%	25%	0%	-14.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.0%	0%	-14.1%
10%	-34.9%	0%	-22.3%
15%	-41.2%	0%	-29.8%
20%	-46.9%	0%	-36.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage

Net worth$208

Realized−$13

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage235d

Avg bet$93

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$208	$208	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 21	$208	$0	-0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	Feb 11	$15	−$13	-83%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Feb 11	$15	$0	+1%
USDT depeg in 2025?	Nov 25	$18	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$208	1h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$208	2h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$208	6h
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	SELL Yes	15¢	$3	130d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL No	91¢	$15	130d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY No	90¢	$15	184d
USDT depeg in 2025?	SELL No	98¢	$4	208d
USDT depeg in 2025?	SELL No	98¢	$15	208d
USDT depeg in 2025?	BUY No	98¢	$18	219d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	BUY Yes	86¢	$15	234d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.00 · official $208.00 (match) · 10 history records