Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfa24…23fa crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$5 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 132d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$17
culture 10% −$7
sports 7% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +32.2% +19.6% 100% 100% +19.6%
≤30d 1 +32.2% +19.6% 100% 100% +19.6%
≤90d 1 +32.2% +19.6% 100% 100% +19.6%
all 12 +11.2% +0.6% 75% 67% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 67% -11.1%
10% -9.0% 50% -19.6%
15% -17.8% 25% -27.4%
20% -25.9% 17% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$28 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage132d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $39 $32 −$7 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 19 $54 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 19 $158 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 19 $10 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 19 $39 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 19 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 19 $10 +$18 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $54 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $54 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $45 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $45 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $40 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $40 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $37 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $37 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $36 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $13 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $13 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $14 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $19 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $28 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $14 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.45 · official $32.45 (match) · 32 history records