Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa29…bf02 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-5%) realized −$56 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$135
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$66
other 25% −$2
world 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
politics 3% $0
culture 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -17.1%
≤90d 9 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 22% -17.1%
all 15 -1.9% -11.2% 87% 13% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 13% -15.8%
10% -19.7% 13% -23.8%
15% -27.5% 13% -31.2%
20% -34.6% 13% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$176 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage178d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $291 $289 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $164 +$135 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $164 −$163 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 19 $18 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $193 −$190 -98%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 mee May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? May 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 07 $22 +$1 +2%
Magic vs. 76ers May 07 $183 +$151 +83%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mouvement des Élites Engagées pour l’Émancipation du Bénin (MOELE Feb 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on January 11? Feb 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 05 $24 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jan 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $294 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $164 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $164 22d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 41¢ $193 47d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 54¢ $183 69d
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 BUY Yes 100¢ $10 97d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $16 103d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? BUY No 100¢ $18 110d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 116d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $22 132d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $36 143d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $26 151d
Will Mouvement des Élites Engagées pour l’Émancipation du Bénin (MOELE BUY No 100¢ $19 157d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $24 157d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on January 11? BUY No 100¢ $19 166d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.93 · official $288.93 (match) · 29 history records