Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfa2b…c35d crypto 757 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,851 (-16%) realized −$1,137 · open −$714
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%273W / 461L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$473
other 27% −$549
world 23% +$2,702
politics 9% +$124
sports 5% −$113
economics 1% −$24
finance 1% −$36
tech 0% −$7
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +198.2% +169.8% 33% 33% +54.7%
≤30d 42 -24.9% -32.0% 26% 17% -38.5%
≤90d 571 -43.1% -48.5% 23% 19% +12.4%
all 734 -17.6% -25.5% 37% 29% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 29% +11.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 22% +0.7%
15% -39.1% 18% -9.1%
20% -45.1% 15% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized−$1,137
Unrealized−$714
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses273 / 461
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions23
Markets (closed)734 / 757
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 734 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 11¢ $758 $313 −$445 (-59%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $142 $35 −$107 (-76%)
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? No 39¢ 42¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31? No 35¢ 64¢ $14 $26 +$12 (+84%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $90 $24 −$66 (-74%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 66¢ 50¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-24%)
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-29%)
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $10 $18 +$7 (+70%)
Ben Pasternak jailed? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-24%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 17¢ 36¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+115%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+51%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $28 $8 −$20 (-73%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 42¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $27 $6 −$22 (-80%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-87%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 5¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-95%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-94%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 17 $5 +$41 +795%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 07 $16 +$9 +57%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $15 +$89 +597%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? Jun 04 $86 +$5 +6%
Will Ant Middleton not summit Everest by June 30? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Eric Swalwell arrested by May 31? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 04 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Comey smile in his mugshot? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 04 $11 −$7 -61%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 04 $28 −$14 -51%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 04 $24 −$5 -21%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 04 $41 −$21 -51%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 28 $73 −$73 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 28 $55 −$9 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $30 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $82 +$10 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $22 +$6 +27%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $21 +$15 +68%
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 22 $75 +$7 +9%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 22 $59 −$14 -24%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 46 million views on day 2 May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Montreal Canadiens advance to the Conference Finals of the 2026 N May 19 $12 +$12 +92%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Dalila Spiteri vs Geo May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? May 17 $79 −$53 -67%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? May 16 $16 −$8 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $56 −$45 -80%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL No 84¢ $46 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Ben Pasternak jailed? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 12d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 12d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 4¢ $1 12d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 4¢ $1 12d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 4¢ $1 12d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 4¢ $2 12d
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 12d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 13d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 99¢ $80 13d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 99¢ $1 13d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 89¢ $24 13d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b SELL No 92¢ $12 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 16d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 18d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.73 · official $664.41 (match) · 3500 history records